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23.06.2025 12:44 PM
Financial markets are on alert this Monday as investors anticipate a sharp downturn following a US military strike on Iran over the weekend. The potential for retaliation and a surge in oil prices is weighing heavily on global sentiment.
The escalating crisis in the Middle East has overtaken the release of US economic data as the primary focus for investors. The unexpected move by President Donald Trump to back Israel's military campaign against Iran has heightened concerns over market volatility, inflation trends, and the Federal Reserve's next steps on interest rates.
The S&P 500 index, while rebounding from early April losses, remains approximately 2.7 percent below its February peak. Despite nearing the 5 percent threshold from its previous high over the past 27 trading sessions, it has yet to reach a new record.
The growing conflict between Israel and Iran has already driven oil prices higher. Though equities have remained relatively stable so far, market participants remain wary. A sustained rise in energy prices could fuel inflation and disrupt the Fed's expected path toward interest rate cuts.
During its Wednesday meeting, the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. Policymakers signaled that borrowing costs could still decline later this year, though the expected pace of rate cuts is likely to be slower than projected in March. Officials pointed to anticipated inflationary pressure, potentially fueled by President Donald Trump's tariff plans, as a reason for the revised outlook.
Investors are bracing for a flood of key economic reports. Monday brings updates on US business activity and home sales. Consumer confidence figures are set for release on Tuesday, followed by Friday's PCE price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.
US consumer confidence has dipped in recent months amid fears that tariffs could push the economy toward recession and stoke inflation. However, with inflation remaining tame and the US-China trade conflict showing signs of de-escalation, market participants are hoping for a rebound in household sentiment.
European markets opened the week with mixed performance, as rising geopolitical tensions weighed on investor mood. The joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend introduced fresh uncertainty into an already fragile global landscape.
With the July 8 deadline to lift US tariffs approaching, negotiations with Washington appear to have stalled. Hopes for a breakthrough are fading, adding to market uncertainty.
Economic momentum across the eurozone remained stagnant for the second consecutive month. According to a report released Monday, the service sector — typically the driving force of the region's economy — showed only modest improvement. Meanwhile, manufacturing activity registered no change at all.
In contrast, the United Kingdom posted a slight uptick in business activity for June, offering a tentative sign that the domestic economy may be stabilizing.
Technology stocks led the advance across European markets, climbing 0.6 percent. The energy sector followed with a 0.3 percent gain, fueled by rising oil prices amid renewed concerns over supply disruptions following strikes on Iranian facilities.
Shares in the European aerospace and defense industry declined by 0.9 percent, as investor sentiment shifted in light of escalating tensions and market volatility.
