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09.06.2025 07:44 AMAll risk assets, including the euro and the pound, fell against the U.S. dollar on Friday following the release of fairly strong U.S. economic data. However, this was not enough to trigger a full reversal of the upward trends in many trading instruments.
The economic data from the United States, published at the beginning of June, came as a pleasant surprise to traders and buyers of the U.S. dollar. The number of jobs in the non-farm sector increased significantly more than expected, signaling continued strength in the American economy. This positive report immediately impacted the currency markets: the U.S. dollar sharply strengthened against the euro and other major currencies.
The unemployment rate, which remained stable at a low level of 4.2%, also added optimism. This figure indicates that the U.S. labor market remains resilient and competitive despite global economic uncertainty.
The euro's reaction was immediate: it depreciated notably against the dollar. Traders, concerned about the European Central Bank's active interest rate cuts and the potential economic slowdown in Europe, redirected their assets towards the more stable and profitable American market. However, market participants are divided in their opinions regarding the long-term implications of these data. Some believe that strong U.S. economic indicators could push the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for a longer period. In any case, the recent U.S. economic data have become a significant factor influencing the currency markets, and their impact is likely to be felt in the coming weeks and months.
Today's calm in terms of macroeconomic data from the eurozone and the absence of public statements from ECB representatives could theoretically support the euro in the short term, as the upward trend in EUR/USD remains intact. The lack of fresh economic indicators and comments from the central bank allows the market to reassess the current situation and possibly ease overly pessimistic sentiments regarding the European currency. Technical analysis also points to potential growth: despite the recent decline, key support levels have held, indicating a continuing upward momentum.
Given the absence of current statistical data from the United Kingdom, a scenario cannot be ruled out in which pound sterling buyers continue to follow an upward strategy, counting on further strengthening GBP/USD. The lack of new economic data creates room for speculation and allows traders to rely on existing trends. The recent decline in the pound against the U.S. dollar, driven by the already absorbed U.S. data, suggests that the upward trend for the pair may continue.
Buying on a breakout of 1.1430 could lead to an increase towards 1.1459 and 1.1492;
Selling on a breakout of 1.1393 could lead to a decline towards 1.1361 and 1.1314.
Buying on a breakout of 1.3581 could lead to an increase towards 1.3613 and 1.3649;
Selling on a breakout of 1.3544 could lead to a decline towards 1.3525 and 1.3490.
Buying on a breakout of 144.53 could lead to an increase towards 144.91 and 145.25;
Selling on a breakout of 144.20 could lead to a sell-off towards 143.95 and 143.66.
I will look for selling opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1438 followed by a return below this level;
I will look for buying opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.1388 followed by a return to this level.
I will look for selling opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3577 followed by a return below this level;
I will look for buying opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3521 followed by a return to this level.
I will look for selling opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.6529 followed by a return below this level;
I will look for buying opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 0.6495 followed by a return to this level.
I will look for selling opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3696 followed by a return below this level;
I will look for buying opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3673 followed by a return to this level.
