Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1430 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

The expected lack of economic data from the Eurozone allowed euro buyers to recover some of their positions after Friday's sell-off, though no significant movement followed. Investors are patiently awaiting news from the trade negotiations, as there is little else to focus on today with no major U.S. economic releases scheduled for the second half of the day. Thus, the main attention will shift to the progress of trade talks between Chinese and U.S. delegations currently being held in London. Optimistic signals could stimulate growth in the U.S. dollar, whereas a lack of agreements could put further pressure on the dollar. Market participants will also closely analyze statements from representatives of both countries, trying to catch hidden meanings or discrepancies. Expert opinions are divided on the likelihood of reaching an agreement, though most believe that a full-scale trade war is not in either side's interest.

As for intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches around 1.1443 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.1478. At 1.1478, I plan to exit and open a sell position in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point movement from the entry point. Euro growth today can be expected only after disappointing trade talks.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1420 price when the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential and lead to a reversal upwards. A rise to the 1.1443 and 1.1478 levels can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1420 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1380, where I plan to exit and immediately open a buy position in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point movement. Selling pressure may return after successful negotiations.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1443 level when the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the 1.1420 and 1.1380 levels can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price to place Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price to place Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – It is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important: Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without a stop-loss, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.