Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The price test of 1.3679 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound.

News that the United States is approaching trade agreements with the Eurozone also supported the British pound. Investor optimism is fueled by expectations of reduced trade barriers and increased global trade volumes, which in turn stimulate economic growth. However, it's worth noting that the details of these trade agreements remain unclear, and the risks of a potential breakdown in negotiations persist.

Today, in the first half of the day, we expect quite interesting data: the UK Manufacturing PMI and the Nationwide House Price Index. The Manufacturing PMI will be closely watched, as it is a key indicator of the UK economy's health. A value above 50 points signals expansion in manufacturing activity, which will likely push the pound higher. Conversely, a reading below 50 could indicate contraction, putting pressure on GBP/USD. Additionally, the Nationwide House Price Index also influences the market. Rising house prices may signal improving consumer confidence and overall economic health, which in turn could support the British currency. Traders and investors are advised to closely monitor these indicators to make informed decisions.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3754 (indicated by the green line on the chart), aiming for growth toward the 1.3799 level (represented by the thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3799, I plan to exit long positions and open a short position in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip pullback from the level). The pound may rise today within the upward trend, but only after strong economic data is released.

Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3723 level while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal to the upside. Growth toward the opposite levels, 1.3754 and 1.3799, can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the price breaks below the 1.3723 level (red line on the chart), which could trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3676, where I plan to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip bounce from the level). Selling the pound is advisable after a failed attempt to rise above the daily high.

Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3754 level while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels, 1.3723 and 1.3676, can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.