Monday Trade Review:

EUR/USD, 1H Chart

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair traded with a downward bias, and the U.S. dollar posted a fairly strong gain. As we've mentioned before, even under Donald Trump, the dollar can't decline every single day—periodic corrections are to be expected. However, any sudden rise in the dollar tends to be viewed with skepticism and caution.

Yesterday, the Eurozone released a fairly neutral retail sales report, while Germany published strong industrial production data. Therefore, the macroeconomic backdrop should have supported euro growth rather than a decline. There were no particularly impactful fundamental events. Trump continued issuing threats and imposing or raising tariffs, and Elon Musk announced the creation of the "American Party." These headlines were unlikely to serve as grounds for dollar strengthening. Thus, we tend to view the current market movement as a technical correction, which is unlikely to be strong or long-lasting.

EUR/USD, 5M Chart

On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed on Monday. During the European session, the price broke through the 1.1740–1.1745 level, and during the U.S. session, it rebounded from that same area from below. These two sell signals mirrored each other, so novice traders could have entered only one trade. By the end of the day, the pair moved about 25–30 points downward—enough to secure a profit.

How to Trade on Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair maintains an upward trend, despite breaking the ascending trendline. The fact that Donald Trump remains president is still enough to cause periodic declines in the dollar. Of course, the dollar will occasionally correct upward, but overall, the fundamental backdrop makes strong dollar growth highly unlikely. Last week, the U.S. had macroeconomic support, but it didn't help the dollar. This week, the price may continue to decline slightly, but a break above the descending trendline would signal renewed growth.

On Tuesday, EUR/USD may remain flat or trade with low volatility. No major events are scheduled for the second trading day of the week.

On the 5-minute timeframe, watch the following levels: 1.1198–1.1218, 1.1267–1.1292, 1.1354–1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455–1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1561–1.1571, 1.1609, 1.1666, 1.1740–1.1745, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908.

On Tuesday, there will be no macroeconomic background in either the Eurozone or the U.S. However, yesterday Donald Trump announced a tariff hike to 25% for Japan and South Korea—as expected.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal depends on how quickly it is formed (rebound or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more false signals have already formed around a level, ignore all subsequent signals from that level.
3. In flat markets, pairs can generate many false signals—or none at all. If signs of a flat appear, it's best to stop trading.
4. Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the U.S. session. All trades should be closed manually afterward.
5. On the 1H timeframe, MACD signals should only be used if there's good volatility and a confirmed trend (by a trendline or trend channel).
6. If two levels are located too close together (5–20 points apart), treat them as a support/resistance zone.
7. After the price moves 15 points in the right direction, move the Stop Loss to breakeven.

What's Shown on the Charts:

• Support and resistance price levels – These are targets for opening buy or sell trades and can be used for setting Take Profit levels.
• Red lines – Channels or trendlines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.
• MACD indicator (14,22,3) – Histogram and signal line, which can also serve as a signal source.
• Major speeches and reports (always listed in the news calendar) can have a strong impact on the pair's movement. During such events, trade with extreme caution or exit the market to avoid a sudden reversal.

Reminder for Beginners:Not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and following money management principles are key to long-term success in forex trading.