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28.08.2025 08:56 AMThe test of the 147.96 price coincided with the moment the MACD indicator had just started to move down from the zero line, confirming a correct entry for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair dropped toward the 147.60 target area.
Yesterday's speech by New York Fed President John Williams led to a weakening of the dollar and strengthening of the yen. The market's reaction to Williams' remarks was fully expected. Investors interpreted the NY Fed Chair's comments as confirmation of mounting concerns about slowing economic growth and potential labor market risks, which increased expectations for a rate cut as early as September this year. Yen appreciation, in turn, reflects the classic investor response to uncertainty—the Japanese currency is traditionally seen as a safe haven, and in periods of economic instability, demand rises. Another factor supporting the yen may be expectations of a return to tighter monetary policy from the Bank of Japan.
For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY if the entry point at 147.26 (indicated by the green line on the chart) is reached, with a target of rising to 147.55 (the thicker green line on the chart). Near 147.55, I plan to exit buys and open shorts in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 pip move away from the entry level). It's best to enter buys on the pair after corrections and significant downturns on USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and is just starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 147.04 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside and prompt an upside reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 147.26 and 147.55 can be expected.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY only after a confirmed break below 147.04 (red line on the chart), which should trigger a quick drop in the pair. The key seller target is 146.73, where I'll exit shorts and immediately buy for a reversal (targeting a 20–25 pip move away from the level). It's better to sell from as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and is just starting to turn down.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of 147.26 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will cap the pair's upside and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 147.04 and 146.73 can be expected.
Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.
Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.
Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.
Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
