Trade review and tips for trading the euro

The price test of 1.1738 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro and resulting in a 20-point rise.

A slight narrowing of the eurozone trade surplus only temporarily slowed the pair's growth, after which the euro's upward trend resumed. Now, in the second half of the day, the Empire Manufacturing Index will be released. An increase in the Empire Manufacturing Index in the U.S. may strengthen the dollar, but it is unlikely to be enough to reverse the current market trend.

Traditionally, the Empire Manufacturing Index, which reflects the state of New York's manufacturing sector, plays an important role in assessing the U.S. economy. If the index exceeds forecasts, it usually points to a rise in production, more orders, and overall business optimism. In such cases, investors tend to show increased interest in the dollar. However, if the figures disappoint significantly, the dollar is likely to weaken further against the euro, as this would reinforce expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this week.

As for intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy signal

Scenario #1: Buying the euro is possible today if the price reaches 1.1773 (green line on the chart) with the target at 1.1826. At 1.1826, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-point move from the entry point. Growth should be considered only if U.S. data is weak.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.1744 twice, at the moment when the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth can then be expected toward 1.1773 and 1.1826.

Sell signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1744 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1699, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25-point rebound. Pressure on the pair will return if U.S. data is strong.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1773 twice, at the moment when the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.1744 and 1.1699 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line – projected price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line – projected price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when deciding to enter trades. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember: successful trading requires a clear plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.