Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro Currency

The price test at 1.1764 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. The second test of 1.1764 coincided with the MACD being in the overbought zone, which activated Sell Scenario #2 and resulted in a 20-point drop in the pair.

Thanks to the lack of key macroeconomic data from the U.S., the position of the U.S. dollar improved at the end of last week. Investors interpreted the absence of news as an opportunity to stabilize their portfolios following the volatility caused by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut.

Today, during the first half of the day, eurozone consumer confidence index data for September will be released. In addition, public speeches from ECB representative Philip Lane and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel are scheduled. The consumer confidence index is a key indicator of consumer sentiment and reflects their willingness to spend, which directly impacts economic growth. Experts will pay close attention to this reading to understand how the public perceives the current economic situation and their outlook for the future. A rising figure would support the euro.

The speeches by Philip Lane and Joachim Nagel are also expected to draw significant market interest. Investors will be looking for clues regarding the ECB's future monetary policy, particularly in light of the central bank's recent decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Any hints of adjustments to monetary policy could trigger currency market volatility.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, you can buy the euro on a price move to the level of 1.1757 (green line on the chart) with the goal of a rise to 1.1792. At 1.1792, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a pullback of 30–35 points from the entry level. EUR growth can be expected only if positive statistics are released. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1722 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and could lead to a market reversal upwards. Then, growth back to the resistance levels of 1.1757 and 1.1792 could be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1722 level (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1684, where I will exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point movement from the level). Pressure on the pair will likely resume if today's data is weak. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to move down from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1757 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and potentially trigger a downward reversal. A fall toward the 1.1722 and 1.1684 levels could be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – estimated price at which Take Profits can be set or profits manually fixed, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – estimated price at which Take Profits can be set or profits manually fixed, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – when entering a trade, it is crucial to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important:

Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions with great caution. It's best to stay out of the market ahead of the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.

And remember: successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for any intraday trader.