Trade review and tips for trading the euro

The test of 1.1721 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair fell by 10 points.

ECB representatives' speeches failed to deliver the desired effect, so all attention now shifts to the speeches of FOMC members Christopher Waller and John Williams. It will be interesting to hear their outlook on interest rates, especially given that no significant increase in inflationary pressure was observed at the end of the summer period. Also in focus is the release of pending home sales data. This indicator, a precise barometer of the real estate market, reacts sensitively to shifts in supply and demand. After several months of relative stability, market participants are questioning whether the positive trend will continue or if a slowdown will follow.

As for intraday strategy, I will focus mainly on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible at the 1.1735 area (green line on the chart) with a target at 1.1760. At 1.1760, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A euro rally today is possible if U.S. data comes out weak. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1713 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward 1.1735 and 1.1760 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1713 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1689, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 points upward from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today if the statistics come in strong. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below zero and just start its decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1735 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.1713 and 1.1689 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – suggested level for placing Take Profit or fixing profits manually, since further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – suggested level for placing Take Profit or fixing profits manually, since further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions with extreme caution. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.