A weak national currency is the cornerstone of Trump's plans to restore the greatness of the United States. Let's recall that the new-old U.S. president believes that American industry should be revived and that the country should not only buy but also sell. But how can this be achieved? It is well-known that American wages are among the highest in the world, and the cost of living in the U.S. is exorbitant. This indicates that American goods and services are simply unaffordable for consumers in many other countries. Without considering the relatively prosperous and wealthy European Union, America under Trump wants to sell its products, raw materials, energy resources, and services not just to Europe.

Firstly, the industry needs to be revived. Over the past few decades, many American companies (which have plenty of money due to the strength of the economy) have come to the obvious conclusion: goods should not be produced in the U.S. Everything is too expensive there, from taxes to labor costs. Why produce anything in the U.S. when it can be done in China, Malaysia, Vietnam, or any other Asian country where a wage of $100-200 is considered high, and people are willing to work for food? This is why Trump needs multi-billion-dollar investments in the American economy as part of trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and other countries—to make industry grow.

Currently, it is unclear how these investments will work, when they will start flowing into the American economy, and where exactly this money will be directed. However, even an increase in industrial production will not eliminate the problem of excessively high prices of American products for global consumers. Therefore, secondly, American products need to be made cheaper.

Simply lowering prices is not possible without also reducing taxes, lowering virtually all payments faced by businesses and individuals in the U.S., lowering rental costs, and so on. I cannot recall a single case in world practice where any country did anything similar to increase export volumes. The most obvious option remains the depreciation of the dollar. If the dollar, which has appreciated since around 2008, becomes cheaper (and ideally cheap), then American goods will become more competitive in global markets. And here is where it gets interesting.

Wave Analysis for EUR/USD:

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward section of the trend. Over the last few months, the market has paused, but Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's remain significant factors in the future decline of the American currency. The targets of the current trend section may extend to the 25th figure. Currently, construction of corrective wave 4 continues, taking on a highly complex, elongated form. Its latest internal structure—a-b-c-d-e—is close to completion or has already been completed. Therefore, I am once again considering long positions with targets set around the 19th figure.

Wave Analysis for GBP/USD:

The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We are still dealing with an upward, impulsive section of the trend, but its internal wave structure is becoming more complex. Wave 4 has taken a three-wave form, and its structure appears to be very elongated. The bearish corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in c in 4 is presumably nearing completion. I expect the main wave structure to resume building with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade, as they often lead to changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There is never 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Always remember to use protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.