Trade Review and Recommendations for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test of 154.52 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid sell entry point for the dollar. However, the expected decline did not follow, resulting in a loss on the trade.

Going forward, market participants will closely monitor whether Federal Reserve officials maintain their wait-and-see stance or show greater readiness to ease policy, given the unfavorable economic data. The statements of these officials will be carefully analyzed for clues about how the Fed views the future prospects of interest rate changes.

Let me remind you that FOMC members John Williams, Christopher Waller, and Raphael Bostic are scheduled to speak today. A dovish tone could lead to a decline in the U.S. dollar, while maintaining a hawkish position could negatively affect the Japanese yen, which has already been under pressure recently.

Additionally, do not forget that today the U.S. House of Representatives will vote on the budget bill for next year. If the result is positive, demand for risk assets may increase.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the price reaches around 154.98 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 155.35 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 155.35, I plan to close buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point movement from that level. Growth in the pair can be expected as part of the ongoing bullish market trend.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY in the event of two consecutive tests of the 154.75 price level when the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward 154.98 and 155.35 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the price breaks below 154.75 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 154.36, where I plan to close sell positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level. However, selling pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY in the event of two consecutive tests of the 154.98 price level when the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward 154.75 and 154.36 can then be expected.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – Entry price level for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – Approximate Take Profit level or area to manually lock in profit, since further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – Entry price level for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – Approximate Take Profit level or area to manually lock in profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – When entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important Notice for Beginner Forex Traders

New traders should be extremely cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit — especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.

And remember: to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.