Trade Review and Trading Recommendations for the Euro

The test of the 1.1620 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving lower from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 15 points.

The euro posted a modest decline following the release of Eurozone services PMI data. Although the figures came in slightly better than economists' forecasts, this moderate boost in optimism failed to reverse the broader trend, as the indicator remained below the critical 50-point threshold. This clearly points to continued contraction in business activity within a key sector of the Eurozone economy.

Market attention will now focus on the ADP Employment Change report, which reflects the change in private-sector employment in the United States for May. This indicator often serves as a leading signal for the official labor market data and provides insight into labor market conditions and their potential impact on future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

Following the employment report, the ISM Services PMI will be released. Positive momentum or, conversely, signs of slowing activity in this sector could have a noticeable impact on market sentiment and expectations regarding future economic growth.

Comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will provide another important angle for analysis. The Treasury Secretary typically addresses fiscal policy, government debt conditions, and international economic relations. His remarks may touch on the budget deficit, taxation, and trade relations, all of which can directly influence the U.S. dollar.

As for my intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro can be considered when the price reaches 1.1628 (the green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1651. At 1.1651, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a reversal of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can only be expected if U.S. data comes in weaker than forecast.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun moving higher from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1612 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, growth toward 1.1628 and 1.1651 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1612 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1594, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound from the level. Pressure on the pair is likely to return today if U.S. data comes in stronger than expected.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun moving lower from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1628 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. In this case, a decline toward 1.1612 and 1.1594 can be expected.

Chart Explanation:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits can be manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits can be manually secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental releases to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.