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18.06.2025 05:00 PM
US stock futures climbed on Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's policy decision, set against the backdrop of a sixth consecutive day of armed conflict between Iran and Israel, marked by ongoing missile exchanges.
Intrigue about the funds rate: no change expected, but hints matter
Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.5% when the decision is announced at 2:00 p.m. ET. Investor attention will be focused on Chairman Jerome Powell's comments, as markets look for clues on how he plans to address lingering inflationary pressures.
Powell at a crossroads: inflation vs. recession
The Federal Reserve faces a delicate balancing act — managing inflation risks without triggering an economic slowdown. Powell's tone will be critical in shaping investor sentiment, particularly in light of escalating geopolitical tensions.
Rate cut bets gain ground
Wall Street analysts project that the Federal Reserve will reduce the official funds by a cumulative 46 basis points by the end of 2025. The CME FedWatch Tool suggests a 56% likelihood of the first 25 basis point cut taking place in September.
Oil in focus: Middle East tensions escalate
Tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, as Iran and Israel continue to exchange strikes. Markets are increasingly concerned about potential US military involvement, which could further destabilize the global oil market and impact the broader economic outlook.
Futures open higher on Fed anticipation and global uncertainty
As of 5:37 a.m. ET, U.S. equity futures pointed higher:
Economic calendar
Markets are awaiting US jobless claims data, due at 8:30 a.m. ET. The report may offer fresh insights into labor market conditions and influence future Fed policy decisions.
Stock movers: pre-market leaders
Tesla (TSLA.O) rose nearly 1% as investor interest in the EV giant resurfaced.
Circle Internet (CRCL.N) surged 3.1% after the US Senate approved legislation regulating the issuance and circulation of stablecoins, marking a key step toward formal recognition of digital assets at the federal level.
European markets in the red amid rising tensions
Contrasting with US optimism, European equities edged lower as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision and amid persistent Middle East instability:
STOXX 600 fell 0.2% to 541.02 at 08:39 GMT, its lowest level in three weeks.
Storm clouds over global markets
The Persian Gulf remains a hotspot: military operations between Iran and Israel show no signs of abating. The US is reinforcing its presence in the region, deploying additional fighter jets — raising the risk of direct US involvement and rattling both oil and equity markets.
Caution returns: traders react to geopolitical risk
Markets remain under pressure, and growing political risk is intensifying that trend. Familiar economic concerns — such as Trump-era trade volatility and slow progress on tariff negotiations — are also weighing on sentiment, particularly ahead of the July 8 deadline for the current trade dispute moratorium.
Barclays turns bullish on Europe
Despite the cautious tone, analysts at Barclays are optimistic about European equities, forecasting that the STOXX 600 will hit 620 by the end of 2026. They cite expected fiscal stimulus from Germany and potential monetary easing in the eurozone as key drivers.
Healthcare sector leads declines
The healthcare sector posted the steepest losses, with the .SXDP index falling 0.9% — the worst performance among major industry groups.
Standout gainers defy the trend
Airbus (AIR.PA) gained 3% after raising the upper bound of its dividend policy, a positive signal ahead of its upcoming business update.
Gerresheimer (GXIG.DE) soared 7.3%, outpacing the STOXX 600, as investors welcomed reports of ongoing takeover discussions between KPS Capital Partners and Warburg Pincus over the medical packaging firm.
Regional markets show mixed performance
Reactions varied by region. The UK's FTSE 100 (.FTSE) edged higher after data confirmed a slowdown in UK inflation for May — in line with analyst expectations. However, traders believe this is unlikely to sway the Bank of England's upcoming decision due Thursday.
Sweden eases its monetary policy
The Swedish central bank cut its key interest rate from 2.25% to 2.00% as expected, citing "moderate inflationary pressure" — a move that provides space to support an economy still stuck in low-growth mode.
