Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test of 144.52 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero line, which limited the dollar's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

Today, weak data on wage growth in Japan was released. The figure rose by only 1.0%, while economists had expected a 2.4% increase. However, a strong leading economic indicators index offset the pressure, which stopped the USD/JPY pair from continuing to rise.

This contrast between weak wage dynamics and positive leading indicators creates a degree of uncertainty about the outlook for Japan's economy. On the one hand, insufficient wage growth points to weak domestic demand and may restrain inflation, which in turn limits the Bank of Japan's ability to tighten monetary policy. On the other hand, positive leading indicators suggest potential for future economic growth. This may be driven by improving external demand, a recovery in investment, or other factors supporting expansion in economic activity.

Nevertheless, the key driver for USD/JPY remains the U.S.–Japan trade agreement, which still does not exist.

As for intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the entry point around 145.10 (green line on the chart) is reached, targeting a rise toward 145.59 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 145.59, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction). It's best to buy the pair on corrections and deeper pullbacks.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 144.83 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 145.10 and 145.59 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the price breaks below the 144.83 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers is the 144.41 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move upward). Selling pressure on the pair may return quickly today.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests the 145.10 level twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 144.83 and 144.41 can be expected.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – projected price where Take Profit can be set or profits manually locked in, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – projected price where Take Profit can be set or profits manually locked in, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – overbought and oversold zones are important when deciding on market entries.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making decisions to enter the market. Before the release of key fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you don't use money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan—like the one I've outlined above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.