Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 147.85 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move down from the zero line, confirming a valid sell entry for the dollar. As a result, the pair declined by more than 50 points.

Regardless of the actual value of the U.S. Leading Economic Index, it is unlikely to significantly support the dollar, so demand for the Japanese yen is expected to dominate under current conditions. However, it's important to remember that the Leading Index is just one of many indicators that reflect the state of the economy. Investors usually analyze it in conjunction with other data such as inflation, labor market conditions, and consumer spending. Therefore, even if the index shows a positive result, it won't necessarily lead to dollar strengthening—especially if other macro indicators point to economic challenges.

Ultimately, the dollar's exchange rate will be influenced not so much by the specific reading of the Leading Index, but by the overall global economic situation and monetary policy outlooks of major central banks. The market will look for confirmation or rejection of existing forecasts, and only in that context could the Leading Index data have a noticeable impact on the U.S. dollar's performance.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the execution of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 147.75 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 148.43 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.43, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, expecting a pullback of 30–35 points from that level. A strong rally in the pair today is unlikely. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests the 147.13 level twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise to the opposing levels of 147.75 and 148.43 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a breakout below 147.13 (red line on the chart), which is expected to lead to a sharp decline. The key target for sellers will be 146.54, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long ones in the opposite direction, expecting a rebound of 20–25 points from that level. Bearish pressure is likely to dominate the pair today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests the 147.75 level twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposing levels of 147.13 and 146.54 is then expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – Suggested Take Profit level or manual profit-taking point, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – Suggested Take Profit level or manual profit-taking point, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, always consider overbought and oversold conditions

Important Note for Beginner Forex Traders

Beginner traders should exercise extreme caution when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of major economic reports to avoid sudden price spikes. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you ignore money management rules and trade with large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan—like the one presented above. Making impulsive decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.