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27.08.2025 03:57 AM
The GBP/USD currency pair traded sideways for almost the entire day yesterday. A boring Monday, slightly brightened by the evening session, flowed into a boring Tuesday. And a boring Tuesday may become a boring Wednesday, as there are no important events or reports scheduled for today. The technical picture on the hourly timeframe is not very informative at the moment. The price is near the Ichimoku indicator lines, volatility is relatively low, and there is no clear trend. The downward trend was broken last week as the respective trend line was overcome. However, for further growth of the British pound, it now needs to consolidate above the Ichimoku indicator lines and preferably break through the 1.3509-1.3525 area.
From a macroeconomic and fundamental standpoint, there's nothing noteworthy about Tuesday. Of course, one can point to the US durable goods orders report, but as we see, the market didn't react significantly to this release, as the actual value was in line with forecasts. The firing of Lisa Cook is not a firing at all. It is yet another desire or provocation from Donald Trump, who is beginning to feel his own impotence in confronting the Federal Reserve.
On the 5-minute chart on Tuesday, several trading signals formed, but the movements were extremely weak. The price first bounced off the Ichimoku lines block, then broke through it. In both cases, the move was about 20 pips. Other signals and moves of the day were no better.
COT reports on the British pound show that in recent years, commercial traders' sentiment has been constantly shifting. The red and blue lines, reflecting the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, regularly cross and usually stay close to zero. At present, they are again almost at the same level, suggesting roughly equal long and short positions.
The dollar continues to weaken due to Donald Trump's policies, so demand for sterling among market makers is not particularly relevant now. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time. The Fed will cut rates at some point in the coming year. Dollar demand will fall regardless. According to the latest COT report on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 7,500 BUY contracts and closed 6,300 SELL contracts. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders rose by 13,800 contracts for the reporting week.
In 2025, the pound has risen significantly, but it is important to understand that the reason is singular—Trump's policy. Once that factor fades, the dollar may strengthen, but no one knows when. It does not matter much how the pound's net position changes—dollar positioning is falling anyway, usually at a faster pace.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair is poised to form a new uptrend but remains stagnant. The pair has corrected enough in recent weeks to resume the global uptrend that began in January. The fundamental and macroeconomic background hasn't changed, so there is still no reason to expect dollar growth.
For August 27, we highlight the following key levels: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3509-1.3525, 1.3615, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. The Senkou Span B (1.3495) and Kijun-sen (1.3466) lines can also provide signals. The Stop-Loss level is recommended to be set at breakeven if the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may fluctuate throughout the day, so this should be taken into account when defining trading signals.
On Wednesday, neither the UK nor the US has any macroeconomic reports or events planned. Thus, volatility could remain low, with the price again spending the day stagnant or moving in a very tight range. Unless, of course, Trump fires someone else or starts a new war with Venezuela.
We believe that on Wednesday, the upward movement could resume, but the pound now faces resistance in the area of 1.3509-1.3525 and the Ichimoku lines above. We are waiting for this area to be broken; once it happens, we will again consider long positions with a target at 1.3615.
