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09.09.2025 08:30 AMThe price test at 147.60 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far down from the zero level, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar.
Today's data on the growth of the money supply aggregate in Japan supported the yen and weakened the dollar's position. An increase in the money supply, reflecting higher liquidity in the Japanese economy, is usually seen by the market as a positive factor. This may indicate increased business activity, rising investments, and consumer spending. In turn, this strengthens investor confidence in the prospects of the Japanese economy and stimulates demand for the yen. Additionally, the yen's strengthening may be linked to expectations of changes in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy. Although the central bank has maintained a loose policy for a long time, rising inflation and pressure from financial markets may force it to reconsider its stance. Further increases in the money supply could become an additional argument in favor of tightening policy, which would provide even more support for the yen.
For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point around 147.16 (green line on the chart) is reached, targeting a rise toward 147.80 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 147.80, I intend to exit buys and open sells in the opposite direction (looking for a move of 30–35 pips in the opposite direction from this level). It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 146.75, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential, leading to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 147.16 and 147.80 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 146.75 level (red line on the chart) is broken, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be at 146.21, where I intend to exit sells and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (looking for a move of 20–25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). It is best to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 147.16, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 146.75 and 146.21 can be expected.
Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.
Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.
Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.
Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
