In addition to everything mentioned above, it's important to remember that tariffs are not beneficial for the European Union. If Europe imposes duties on India and China, retaliatory tariffs and sanctions will follow. In my opinion, such policies only escalate geopolitical tensions. In recent years, there's already been too much talk about a potential World War III—a scenario we'd all like to avoid.

Regardless, the European economy would suffer just as the US economy suffered if Brussels were to implement such tariffs. The issue of Slovakia and Hungary's oil purchases is especially unclear; both countries claim they have no alternative to Russian oil and are unwilling to pay higher prices from other suppliers due to budget constraints. Moreover, for the EU to decide on tariffs, all 27 member states have to vote in favor. Do you think Hungary or Slovakia would support such tariffs? It's likely that other countries might also block this kind of initiative.

That's why, in my view, the "Trump plan" to pressure Moscow through third countries is doomed to fail. And Washington is not ready to "pull chestnuts out of the fire" alone. Scott Bessent stated this week that without the Europeans, America will not introduce tariffs. Chinese officials made it clear that oil purchases are a sovereign matter for each country, and in response to any new tariffs from Washington, Beijing will respond with fresh tariffs of its own.

Bessent also said, "If Europe imposed duties on importers of Russian oil and gas, the war in Ukraine would end within 2–3 months."

Taking all this into account, I suggest that the global trade war will only intensify, and Washington is already trying to forge a coalition against the East. If that's the case, the dollar will remain under market pressure for a long time to come. Recall that markets always interpret new tariffs in the same way—by identifying their source. The source sits in the White House. Therefore, demand for the US dollar will continue to decline.

Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:

Based on my analysis, EUR/USD continues to build a rising section of the trend. The wave structure remains heavily influenced by the news background, particularly Trump's decisions and the new Administration's domestic and foreign policies. The targets for this trend could reach the 1.25 area. The news background remains unchanged; therefore, I continue to view 1.1875 (which corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement) and above as the first upside targets.

Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:

The GBP/USD wave structure remains unchanged. We're dealing with a bullish, impulsive trend leg. Under Donald Trump, markets could face many more shocks and reversals, possibly affecting the wave pattern, but for now, the core scenario is intact, and Trump's policy is consistent. The upside target for this trend leg lies around the 261.8% Fibonacci extension. I expect further price increases as part of wave 3 in 5, with a target of 1.4017.

My Key Analysis Principles:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear; complex patterns are tough to trade and invite frequent changes.
2. If you're not confident in what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.
3. You can never have 100% certainty in direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Elliott wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.