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25.09.2025 08:30 AMThe test of the 1.3467 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below zero, limiting the pair's downside potential. Long positions on the rebound from 1.3434 (Scenario #2) returned about 15 pips of profit.
News that US new home sales came in much higher than economists had forecast strengthened the dollar and led to a decline in the British pound. Investors immediately reconsidered their positions, anticipating good economic growth momentum. The prospect of keeping rates higher for longer returned appeal to the US dollar.
Today, the Confederation of British Industry will release UK retail sales figures. This data will serve as an important barometer for assessing consumer strength and the overall condition of the UK economy. Traders will be closely watching to see whether the numbers indicate steady growth or signal a slowdown. These figures are especially relevant in light of growing concerns about inflation and its effect on consumers' purchasing power. If the numbers come in weaker than expected, this could increase pressure on the Bank of England. Conversely, strong retail sales may indicate that consumers, despite inflation, continue to support the economy. The Confederation of British Industry is a respected source of economic information, and its data often has a significant market impact. For this reason, investors, traders, and businesses will closely monitor today's release to adjust their strategies and forecasts.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound at the entry point near 1.3464 (indicated by the green line on the chart) with a target move to 1.3494 (indicated by the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3494, I plan to exit those buys and immediately switch to sells on a reversal (targeting a 30–35 pip move away from the level). A strong rally in the pound today is unlikely unless accompanied by solid data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and is just starting to rise from there.
Scenario #2: I will also look to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3441 price with the MACD in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downside and prompt a reversal upward. Look for the price to move to 1.3464 and 1.3494.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after it breaks below 1.3441 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline. The main target for sellers will be 1.3407, where I plan to close shorts and then immediately switch to buys on a reversal (targeting a 20–25 pip rebound). Sellers can step in at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and just start to move down from there.
Scenario #2: I will also look to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3464 price with the MACD in overbought territory. This will cap the upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. Expect a move towards 1.3441 and 1.3407.
Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.
Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.
Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.
Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
