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25.09.2025 08:30 AMThe test of the 148.49 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved sharply above zero, limiting the pair's bullish potential. The second test of this level allowed for selling according to Scenario #2, but it ended with a stop-out as the pair failed to drop as expected.
The sharp jump in US new home sales in August strengthened the dollar and sent the Japanese yen lower. This unexpected surge in real estate activity signaled the resilience of the US economy, which immediately impacted investor expectations for the Federal Reserve's future policy. The jump in sales exceeded analyst forecasts, reinforcing the belief that the Fed may continue with a tight monetary stance, maintaining high interest rates to combat inflation. This outlook made the dollar a more attractive asset for investors seeking higher yields.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 148.95 (indicated by the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 149.60 (represented by the thicker green line on the chart). Around 149.60, I will exit longs and open new sell positions on a reversal (for a 30–35 pip move downward). It's best to return to buying during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and is just starting to rise from that level.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 148.60 with MACD in oversold territory. This will limit the downside and prompt an upward reversal. You can expect a move to the 148.95 and 149.60 levels.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after a move below 148.60 (red line on the chart), which should spark a quick decline. The main target for sellers will be 148.05, where I plan to close shorts and immediately switch to longs (aiming for a 20–25 pip rebound from this level). It's best to sell from as high a level as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and just beginning to fall from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 148.95 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This will cap upside potential and spark a reversal downward. Look for movement to the 148.60 and 148.05 levels.
Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.
Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.
Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.
Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
