Yesterday, Bitcoin plunged below $109,000, triggering panic in the market. Ethereum also remained below $4,000, indicating ongoing active selling that has been seen recently.

It's clear that BTC began to see heavy selling right after the FOMC, and a couple of failed attempts to rise above $118,000 only encouraged even more short positions from speculators. The overall market structure now points to fading momentum.

According to Glassnode data, there is currently heavy selling from long-term holders, but these sales are not being absorbed, as inflows to ETFs have slowed significantly lately. This is worrisome, since long-term holders are traditionally seen as the most stable and confident market participants. Their actions often act as a sentiment indicator and a harbinger of broader changes. The drop in ETF inflows highlights weakening institutional interest or at least a cautious stance from large investors. All of this suggests that Bitcoin's decline is far from over, and current "attractive" prices may not be that attractive if we revisit the $100,000 mark on Bitcoin.

In the options market, there is also a significant skew toward puts (i.e., sellers). On the other hand, if we hold above 109,000 in the coming days, there is a decent chance for a bounce back toward 112,000–113,000, continuing consolidation and accumulation.

Regarding the intraday strategy on the crypto market, I will continue to act on any major dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum, expecting the medium-term bull market—which has not disappeared—to remain in effect.

For short-term trading, my strategy and trade conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today if the entry point, currently around $109,900, is reached, with an upside target of $111,800. At $111,800, I will exit longs and immediately sell on a bounce. Before buying a breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is in positive territory.
• Scenario #2: You can also buy Bitcoin from the lower boundary at $108,900 if there is no market reaction to a breakout below it, targeting a rebound to $109,900 and $111,800.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today if the entry point at $108,900 is reached, targeting a fall to $107,200. At $107,200, I'll exit shorts and immediately buy on a bounce. Before selling a breakout, make sure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is in negative territory.
• Scenario #2: You can also sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary of $109,900 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above it, targeting a move down to $108,900 and $107,200.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will buy Ether today if the entry point is reached at around $3,981, with a target of $4,116. At $4,116, I'll exit longs and immediately sell on a bounce. Before buying a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is positive.
• Scenario #2: You can also buy Ether at the lower boundary of $3,912 if there is no market reaction to a breakout below it, targeting a rebound to $3,981 and $4,116.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will sell Ether today if the entry point at $3,912 is reached, targeting a fall to $3,786. At $3,786, I'll exit shorts and immediately buy on a bounce. Before selling a breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is negative.
• Scenario #2: You can also sell Ether from the upper boundary of $3,981 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above it, targeting moves to $3,912 and $3,786.