Analysis of trades and advice on trading the European currency

The test of the 1.1487 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of this price took place when the MACD was in the oversold area, resulting in the implementation of Scenario #2 — buying the euro with a small upward move of about 10 points.

Good PMI indices for the services sector in Eurozone countries and the composite index for October this year provided only weak support for the European currency. The market's disregard for the positive service-sector data raises doubts about the euro's recovery prospects. Apparently, the market is focusing on more significant negative factors, such as geopolitical tensions, concerns about another surge in inflation (which European policymakers are currently warning about), and a likely period of economic slowdown ahead. In such conditions, isolated optimistic data are perceived more as exceptions that confirm the rule rather than as evidence of a change in the overall trend.

In the second half of the day, similar economic indicators will be released, but for the United States. In particular, data on the ISM Services PMI, as well as the S&P Global Services PMI and the Composite PMI, will be published. The key event will be the release of the ADP employment report. The business activity indices in the services sector, along with the composite PMI, will serve as a kind of barometer of the U.S. economy's condition, allowing us to assess the dynamics of the service sector, one of the main drivers of growth. However, the ADP employment report for October is of greatest interest. This indicator precedes the official U.S. Department of Labor data, which for the second consecutive month will not be published due to the government shutdown. Today's weak employment data could signal labor market difficulties, heightening concerns about U.S. economic growth prospects and thereby negatively affecting the U.S. dollar's exchange rate. Conversely, stronger-than-expected figures could support the dollar by confirming the resilience of the U.S. economy.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1490 (green line on the chart), aiming for growth toward 1.1526. At the 1.1526 level, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Any euro rise today should be seen only as part of a correction.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1476 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward 1.1490 and 1.1526 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1476 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1449, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level). Downward pressure on the pair may return at any moment today.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1490 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward 1.1476 and 1.1449 can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – projected price where you can place a Take Profit or manually fix your profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – projected price where you can place a Take Profit or manually fix your profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note

Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember — to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are, from the start, a losing strategy for intraday traders.