What threats does the "shutdown" pose to America and the American economy? The first clear consequence right now is financial loss. Each week costs the economy approximately $15 billion, and by the end of the "shutdown," GDP could lose several tenths of a percent. Such a minor contraction may not instill fear in American lawmakers, which is why progress is not being made from a "dead point." However, the problems could become significantly larger.

It's important to remember that government officials are not just school teachers and bus drivers; they also include, for example, air traffic controllers. In all previous instances when Democrats and Republicans could not agree on funding, many government employees continued their work and were later compensated retroactively. However, the current situation is about timelines. Government employees have not received any pay for a month and a half. The same goes for American military personnel. How much longer will their patience last?

Some analytical agencies have started recording layoffs in the public sector in early November. Life in America is expensive, and payments for loans and mortgages need to be made constantly, which means that a one-and-a-half-month delay is unacceptable for many Americans. Especially given that they see no movement toward a compromise or agreement. U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced that American airspace might be closed due to a shortage of air traffic controllers, some of whom are refusing to work without pay. In the past two weeks, there have been widespread reports of flight delays or cancellations in the U.S. The collapse has already begun, but this is only one sector of the economy—air transportation.

Of course, Trump and his party members blame the Democrats for everything, and likely view this as a lever of pressure on their political opponents. Republicans portray the current political disagreements as the fault of the Democrats. Therefore, a halt in the economy is also their fault. Perhaps Trump is waiting for a public uprising against the Democrats; however, recent polls indicate that most Americans blame the president for the "shutdown." Thus, I can conclude that the "shutdown" is not playing in the Republicans' favor. It should also be noted that the Senate has met around 15 times to vote on a bill, but without success, since neither side is willing to give in, and no amendments are being made to the bill itself.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build a bullish segment of the trend. In recent months, the market has paused, but Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve remain significant factors in the future decline of the American currency. The targets for the current segment of the trend may reach the 25 figure. At this time, the corrective wave 4 is being constructed, taking on a highly complex, elongated shape. Its latest internal structure a-b-c-d-e, is near completion or has already been completed. Therefore, I am once again considering purchases, as all recent downward structures appear corrective.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We continue to deal with a bullish, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal wave structure is becoming more complex. Wave 4 has taken on a three-wave shape, resulting in a very elongated structure. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in c of 4 is presumably nearing completion. I expect the main wave structure to resume its development with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo changes.
2. If there is no certainty about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.