Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 154.23 occurred as the MACD indicator began to decline from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling dollars. As a result, the pair dropped by more than 30 pips.

Today's positive data on the growth of machinery orders in Japan did not provide any support for the Japanese yen. Investors seemed to ignore this positive data and focused on other factors, putting pressure on the Japanese currency. In particular, this pertains to the persistent interest rate differential between Japan and other major economies, especially the US. Planned actions by the new Japanese government to stimulate and support the economy are also exerting pressure on the yen. The market perceives measures that include increased government spending and tax incentives as signals for the continuation of quantitative easing policies, which weaken the attractiveness of the Japanese currency. Investors are concerned that these measures could lead to an increase in government debt and a further decline in the yen's purchasing power.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 154.79 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 155.25 (thicker green line on the chart). At 155.25, I will exit my long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from this level. Growth in the pair can be expected to continue the bullish trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 154.52 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposing levels of 154.79 and 155.25.

Sell Signal

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the 154.52 level (red line on the chart) is breached, which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 154.13 level, where I will exit the shorts and immediately buy in the opposite direction, anticipating a move of 20-25 pips from this level. Pressure on the pair today is unlikely to return. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 154.79 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decrease to the opposing levels of 154.52 and 154.13.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.