Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 147.72 coincided with the MACD indicator beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar and resulting in a drop of over 100 pips.

It is evident that the anticipated ceasefire in the Middle East will reduce the level of uncertainty, and although it will not eliminate geopolitical risks entirely, it will alleviate investor concerns. In this scenario, a partial return of capital from safe-haven assets, including the yen, to more risky but potentially higher-yielding instruments can be expected. However, if the ceasefire announcement is accompanied by ongoing tensions and the threat of renewed conflict, its effect on the yen may be limited. Moreover, the impact of the ceasefire on the yen will depend on how other safe-haven currencies, such as the Swiss franc and the US dollar, react. If investors choose to shift capital from these currencies into higher-yield assets, the yen may not receive a significant boost. In any case, the geopolitical situation will remain one of the key factors influencing the Japanese yen in the near term.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 145.58 (green line on the chart), with a target to rise to 146.38 (thicker green line). Around 146.38, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30–35 pip pullback). It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY.

Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 144.97 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 145.58 and 146.38 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the price breaks below the 144.97 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The main target for sellers will be 144.24, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip rebound from this level). Downward pressure on the pair may return quickly today.

Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 145.58 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 144.97 and 144.24 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.