Trade Review and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The price test at 1.3608 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun to move down from the zero level, which confirmed a proper entry point for selling the pound and resulted in a 30-point drop in the pair. We missed the target of 1.3569 by just a few points.

The Halifax House Price Index, which reflects the dynamics of real estate prices in the country, had little impact on investor sentiment, indicating prevailing pessimism about the UK's economic outlook. This pessimism is likely driven by persistent inflation and a widening budget deficit that the UK Prime Minister continues to struggle with. The market's lack of reaction to the Halifax data also highlights its stronger focus on global macroeconomic factors and Bank of England policy.

Unfortunately, there are no economic reports from the U.S. in the second half of the day and no speeches from Fed officials, so all attention will be on Trump. Markets generally dislike uncertainty, and any sharp remarks from the president may trigger volatility. It is worth noting that Trump's trade rhetoric has always been tough, but his actual actions have often turned out to be less radical. As the July 9 deadline for trade agreements approaches, what to expect remains unclear.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:Today, I plan to buy the pound at the entry point around 1.3614 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3654 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3654, I plan to exit the long position and open a short in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move back down. A significant rally in the pound is unlikely today.Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2:I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3585 level, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. In this case, expect a rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3614 and 1.3654.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:Today, I plan to sell the pound after a breakout below 1.3585 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a swift decline. The key target for sellers will be 1.3548, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from the level). Sellers will likely continue pressuring the pair.Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario #2:I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3614 level, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. Expect a drop toward 1.3585 and 1.3548.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – projected price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – projected price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it's important to use overbought and oversold zones for confirmation.

Important:Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of key fundamental reports to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news events, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I've presented above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.