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08.07.2025 07:42 AM
The GBP/USD currency pair also declined on Monday. However, on its uncertain downward path, the pair encountered the Senkou Span B line of the Ichimoku indicator for the third time—and once again failed to break through it. Over the past few trading days, the pair's movements have resembled a flat range between the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines. Nonetheless, we believe that the current fundamental background and market sentiment toward the dollar support a resumption of the upward trend.
Last week, U.S. reports such as JOLTs, NonFarm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors all came in above forecasts. In theory, this provided the dollar with a full week of support. Yet the market once again chose not to buy the dollar—due to the fundamental context. So what are the dollar's chances of gaining ground now, when even macroeconomic data no longer supports it?
On Monday, there were no notable events or publications in either the UK or the U.S. Thus, the pair's decline in the first half of the day was already surprising. The dollar rising without any basis? In the second half of the day, however, the picture corrected itself.
On the 5-minute chart, two trading signals were formed yesterday. The sell signal around the 1.3615 level was not precise, and the price fell short of reaching the Senkou Span B line by just 5 points. Nevertheless, there was time for traders to close short positions. Unfortunately, no buy signal formed near this line. The next signal occurred again near 1.3615, but this time for a buy. Once again, the price moved up insufficiently. At the end of the day, the price crossed 1.3615 downward again, but opening a third position was not advisable.
COT reports on the British pound show that commercial trader sentiment has been shifting frequently in recent years. The red and blue lines representing net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders cross frequently and often remain near the zero mark. Currently, they are also close together, suggesting a roughly equal number of long and short positions. However, over the past year and a half, the net position has been gradually increasing.
The U.S. dollar continues to weaken due to Donald Trump's policies, making market maker demand for the pound relatively insignificant for now. The trade war will likely continue in some form, and the Fed's key interest rate could decline more than economic conditions justify. Dollar demand is expected to keep falling. According to the latest report on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group closed 6,400 buy positions and 2,000 sell positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders declined by 8,400 for the reporting week, which has little practical significance.
The pound has appreciated significantly in 2025, and the main reason remains Donald Trump's policy. Once that factor is neutralized, the dollar could rebound—but no one knows when that might happen. Trump's presidency is still in its early stages. Many more shocks could be in store for the next four years.
GBP/USD Analysis (1H)
In the hourly time frame, GBP/USD plunged sharply last Wednesday, but that was the end of the dollar's momentum—yet again. The market ignored all positive U.S. macroeconomic data and instead reacted only to an incident in the UK Parliament when Chancellor Rachel Reeves broke into tears during a debate. This week, the price has again failed to break the Senkou Span B line for the third time, suggesting a likely resumption of the upward trend.
As of July 8, we highlight the following key levels: 1.3212, 1.3288, 1.3358, 1.3439, 1.3489, 1.3537, 1.3615, 1.3741–1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. The Senkou Span B line (1.3578) and the Kijun-sen line (1.3674) may also serve as signal sources. It is recommended to move the Stop Loss to breakeven once the price moves 20 points in the correct direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
No Key Events on Tuesday
No major events are scheduled in either the UK or the U.S. on Tuesday. Therefore, price action may remain subdued. However, information from the White House continues to flow actively, and any new developments could trigger a renewed decline in the dollar. On the other hand, there are currently no expected headlines that could support dollar growth.
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