Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1710 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had been in the oversold area for a reasonably long time, which allowed Buy Scenario #2 to play out and led to a 30-pip rise in the euro.

Yesterday, information emerged about a trade agreement between the United States and the European Union, which involves the imposition of 15% tariffs on a significant portion of European exports. Donald Trump stated that the EU would invest 600 billion more in the U.S. than before, that the 15% tariff would apply to EU goods, including automobiles, and that the EU would purchase hundreds of billions of dollars in military equipment. Acceptance of the agreement—even under less favorable terms—indicates a desire to avoid a full-scale trade war, which could have catastrophic consequences for the global economy. Experts agree that, amid global economic instability and geopolitical tensions, seeking compromise is the only reasonable path forward. Further details are expected in the coming days regarding the specific categories of goods subject to the new tariffs.

As for economic data, there are no data from the eurozone today, which may support the continuation of the EUR/USD uptrend triggered by the news and the trade deal. Investors and traders will likely focus on political developments, comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials, and news from the U.S. that may indirectly influence the euro exchange rate.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today upon reaching the price area of 1.1761 (indicated by the green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.1803. At 1.1803, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30–35 pips from the entry point. Buying the euro today makes sense within the context of a bullish market.

Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1730 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1761 and 1.1803 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1730 level (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1699, where I will exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip rebound from the level). Pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today.

Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1761 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upside potential and potentially lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1730 and 1.1699 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.