While the U.S. dollar is trying to hold on to the recent gains it secured from yesterday's strong U.S. inflation data, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin said Thursday he sees signs that consumer conditions in the U.S. improved in July after weakening earlier in the year.

"I feel that consumer activity will improve in July," Barkin said during a webinar organized by the National Association for Business Economics. "If you look, for example, at weekly credit card data, the situation appears much more favorable."

Barkin, who does not have a vote on interest rate decisions this year, spoke ahead of the release of July retail sales data. He noted that there had been a temporary slowdown in the first half of the year, and that going forward, people are likely to spend at a more sustainable pace. "It seems to me that the overall picture remains quite favorable. People have jobs. Real wages are growing," Barkin said.

His remarks come amid intensifying discussions about the outlook for economic growth and inflation. Markets are closely watching signals from Federal Reserve officials in an effort to forecast the next steps in monetary policy. While Barkin's comments do not directly influence current decisions, they reflect the broader sentiment among the Fed's leadership.

The suggestion of a shift toward a more sustainable pattern of consumer spending could indicate that the Fed expects price pressures to ease in the future. After a period of elevated inflation, the regulator hopes for a normalization of conditions and a return to the target price level.

Investors are now betting that Fed officials will lower the central bank's benchmark interest rate at their next policy meeting in September, after keeping it unchanged for the first eight months of 2025 due to concerns that tariffs would accelerate inflation. Earlier on Thursday, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said it was still too early to say what course of action he would support at the September meeting, though he did not believe a significant half-point rate cut would be justified.

As for the current EUR/USD technical picture, buyers now need to break above 1.1700. Only then will they be able to target a test of 1.1730. From there, a move toward 1.1770 becomes possible, though achieving this without support from large market participants will be difficult. The most distant target is the 1.1790 high. If the instrument declines, significant buyer activity is expected only around 1.1640. If no one steps in there, it would be preferable to wait for a retest of the 1.1600 low or open long positions from 1.1565.

As for the current GBP/USD technical picture, pound buyers need to break the nearest resistance at 1.3555. Only then will they be able to target 1.3590, above which a breakout will be difficult. The most distant target is the 1.3615 level. If the pair falls, bears will attempt to take control of 1.3520. If successful, breaking this range would deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3480 low with the prospect of moving toward 1.3445.