Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro

The price test at 1.1639 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero mark. This confirmed a correct entry point for selling the euro and resulted in a 10-point decline in the pair.

Positive news that the eurozone manufacturing PMI once again rose above the 50-point threshold in August supported the euro, which canceled out all plans to reach the sell target and led to an exit from short positions.

This small but significant uptick is a key indicator of a potential recovery in the eurozone economy. Nevertheless, despite the positive trend, it should not be forgotten that the recovery of the industrial sector in the eurozone is still in its early stages and remains exposed to many factors, including U.S. tariffs on the region. Moreover, uncertainty persists regarding the future actions of the European Central Bank and the outlook for the global economy as a whole.

In the second half of the day, key reports capable of influencing market sentiment will be released. Special attention will be paid to the Manufacturing PMI and the Services PMI. These indicators provide a comprehensive assessment of business conditions in key sectors of the economy. Rising PMI values indicate improved business conditions, growth in new orders, and stronger confidence among entrepreneurs.

Also today, FOMC member Raphael Bostic will deliver a speech. His remarks on the current economic situation and monetary policy outlook will be closely monitored by market participants in hopes of hints about the Federal Reserve's next steps. Weekly jobless claims data are unlikely to have a significant impact on the currency market, nor is the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index.

As for intraday strategy, I will be relying mainly on the implementation of Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario 1: Today, buying the euro is possible at around 1.1664 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.1700. At 1.1700 I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A strong euro rally today is unlikely. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and has just started rising from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1646 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1664 and 1.1700 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1646 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1612, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point rebound from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today if the Fed maintains a firm stance. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and has just started declining from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1664 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1646 and 1.1612 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – suggested price for setting Take Profit or fixing profit manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – suggested price for setting Take Profit or fixing profit manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should make trading decisions with great caution. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.