An unexpected speculative attack on the U.S. dollar on Friday pushed the USD/CAD pair down to the 1.3810 support level, even after the price had consolidated above 1.3860 on the daily chart. However, the price held firm. Already today, there is a visual impression that the price intends to break back above 1.3860. If this attempt succeeds, the target at 1.3958 will reopen.

A consolidation below 1.3810 could shift the main bullish scenario to an alternative one—a decline toward 1.3635. If that happens, however, the downward move is likely to be uneven and choppy, since the 1.3635–1.3810 range represents a free-floating zone.

On the four-hour chart, the price made a false consolidation below the MACD indicator line but is now consolidating above it. The Marlin oscillator has dropped into bearish territory and needs time to recover. A consolidation above 1.3860 could bring the price back to its starting position for a move toward 1.3958.