Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday, apart from the German business climate index. This is a completely secondary report, and we do not expect any market reaction to it. The market may still price in Jerome Powell's Friday speech on Monday. However, at this point, everything suggests that today will be a "quiet Monday."

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is also absolutely nothing to highlight among Monday's fundamental events. Nothing noteworthy happened over the weekend worldwide, and even Donald Trump has not recently introduced new tariffs or sanctions, as he is preoccupied with the issue of resolving the military conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

For traders, the trade war remains the top priority. Since we do not see any signs of de-escalation, we also see no grounds for the market to make medium-term purchases of the dollar. As before, the U.S. currency may rely only on local growth based on technical factors or isolated events/reports, but nothing more.

Conclusions:

During the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs will trade on technical grounds. The euro bounced yesterday from the 1.1740–1.1745 area and may continue its decline toward 1.1655–1.1666. However, we would prefer to wait for new signals before opening positions. The British pound may form new signals today around the 1.3518–1.3532 area.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.