On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement after rebounding from the support zone of 1.1637–1.1645. It consolidated above the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1695, after which the pair pulled back. Today, the growth may continue toward the next 100.0% retracement level at 1.1789. A move below 1.1695 would favor the U.S. dollar and some decline toward the 1.1637–1.1645 level.

The wave picture on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave did not break the previous peaks, while the most recent downward wave did not breach the previous low. Thus, the trend continues to shift toward "bullish," although the likelihood of sideways movement remains high. Recent labor market data and revised Fed monetary policy prospects are supporting the bulls.

On Friday, the news background strongly supported the bulls, possibly giving them the momentum needed for a new large-scale advance. In recent weeks, the market had been moving sideways, but I have repeatedly noted that such sideways movement is only a pause before new growth. I still see no grounds for the bears to launch serious attacks. Friday's labor market and unemployment reports from the U.S. only confirmed my view. The labor market continues to cool, creating very few new jobs. American companies are not considering hiring, expansion, or increasing production. Unemployment is rising. If the reports had shown at least "average" figures, one could hope that the FOMC might cut rates once or twice before year-end. But each new report from the U.S. says the same thing: the economy needs stimulus. Thus, I believe the Fed will cut rates three times before the end of the year. We may even see a 0.50% easing move.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to trade in a sideways range, where traders have been stuck for several weeks. Thus, the sideways movement continues. The CCI indicator has formed a "bullish" divergence, warning of possible growth in the near term, but within the horizontal channel. A breakout above or below the range would allow expectations of a renewed trend.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

Over the last reporting week, professional traders closed 2,726 long positions and opened 751 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish, supported by Donald Trump's policies, and continues to strengthen. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 255,000, compared with 136,000 short positions. The gap is nearly twofold. Also, note the number of green cells in the table above, which reflect a strong build-up of euro positions. In most cases, interest in the euro is growing while interest in the dollar is falling.

For 30 consecutive weeks, large traders have been reducing shorts and adding longs. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they may cause numerous long-term and structural problems for America. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, some key economic indicators continue to show declines.

News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

Eurozone – German industrial production change (06:00 UTC).

On September 8, the economic calendar contains only one entry. The impact of the news background on market sentiment will be weak and limited to the morning.

EUR/USD forecast and trader tips:

I see no potential sell signals for the pair today. Buying was possible on a rebound from the 1.1637–1.1645 level with a target of 1.1695. This target has been met. A close above 1.1695 allows traders to keep long positions open with a target of 1.1789.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1789–1.1392 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.