EUR/USD

The euro made a false breakout above the daily MACD line (gray square). Formally, it is believed that the dollar strengthened due to risk-off moves by investors following the downward revision of last year's employment data. From March 2024 to March 2025, 900,000 fewer jobs were created, and now this is being seen as a crisis situation. But this is merely a pretext, as the dollar had already been strengthening since the morning. We believe investors continue to close positions in anticipation of a hawkish stance from the Fed at the September 17 meeting. The daily trading volume was slightly above the average of the past month and a half.

The euro is now targeting support at 1.1632. Consolidation below this level would signal readiness for a push to 1.1495. The Marlin oscillator is in positive territory, so a breakout below the nearest support is not expected in the next two days. Elevated volatility and range-bound trading continue.

On the four-hour chart, the price is approaching the MACD line. Here, the Marlin oscillator is in negative territory, so after the price consolidates below the MACD line (1.1680), sideways movement below 1.1632 is likely.