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10.09.2025 09:01 AMThe price test at 146.74 occurred when the MACD indicator was starting to move upward from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the dollar and resulted in growth toward the target level of 147.48.
Despite the lack of reports and strong demand for the yen in the first half of the day, things changed very quickly. Some market participants revised their expectations regarding the Fed's next steps and began to take profits. Today's driver for the pair will be the US price growth figures, though this data is scheduled for the second half of the day. For this reason, during the European session, nothing significant is likely to happen, and it is better to trade within a small range. Only sharp and unexpected statements from Japanese politicians could change the current market dynamics.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY if the entry point around 147.59 (green line on the chart) is reached, aiming for growth to 148.29 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.29, I plan to exit the longs and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30–35 pips in the opposite direction). It's best to resume buying on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 147.23 when the MACD is in the oversold region. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. You can expect growth to the opposite levels of 147.59 and 148.29.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 147.23 level (red line on the chart) is broken, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 146.45, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 pips in the opposite direction). It's best to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to move down from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 147.59 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 147.23 and 146.45.
Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.
Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.
Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.
Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
