Trade analysis and tips for trading the euro

The test of 1.1778 occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving up from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the euro and resulted in a 20-point rise.

A sharp rise in eurozone business sentiment led to another strengthening of the euro. Investors welcomed the data pointing to a recovery in industrial production, easing fears of a possible recession in the region. At the same time, the U.S. dollar remains under pressure. Tomorrow's Federal Reserve decision, following recent labor market reports, could push the dollar even lower.

Dollar weakness may also continue during today's U.S. session. In the second half of the day, disappointing U.S. reports on retail sales, industrial production, and manufacturing output are expected. Combined with already known labor market data, these figures could reinforce concerns about slowing U.S. economic growth. Falling retail sales usually signal weaker consumer activity. Declines in industrial and manufacturing output point to lower demand for goods and services, which may lead to reduced investment and job cuts. In this situation, the Federal Reserve may be forced to adjust its monetary policy.

As for intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy signal

Scenario #1: Buying the euro is possible today at 1.1821 (green line on the chart) with the target at 1.1848. At 1.1848, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35-point pullback from the entry level. Growth can be expected only after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1800, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the downward potential of the pair and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward 1.1821 and 1.1848 can be expected.

Sell signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching 1.1800 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1766, where I plan to exit sales and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25-point pullback. Pressure on the pair will return today if U.S. data is strong. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1821, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the upward potential of the pair and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.1800 and 1.1766 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – expected price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – expected price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold areas as guidance.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are, by definition, a losing strategy for intraday traders.