Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1689 level coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test of this price coincided with the MACD being in the overbought zone, which allowed scenario #2 for selling to play out, although a major decline in the pair did not materialize.

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index in the US matched economists' forecasts, indicating moderate price pressure. This event served as a catalyst for a reassessment of risks and opportunities in global financial markets. The US dollar, which had shown relative resilience in recent days, came under notable pressure, especially against the euro. Investors, accustomed to expecting aggressive Federal Reserve policy, are now forced to consider the likelihood of further interest rate cuts. The PCE index aligning with forecasts is interpreted as an argument in favor of a more cautious approach by the central bank. This, in turn, reduces the attractiveness of US assets for foreign investors, initiating a capital outflow toward regions with higher potential returns.

Today, in the first half of the day, there are no economic reports from the eurozone, and only a speech by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel is expected. In an information vacuum, any statement from such an influential figure takes on special significance and may act as a potential catalyst for market movement. Nagel's rhetoric, his assessment of the current economic situation in the eurozone, and his forecasts for the near future will undoubtedly be closely analyzed. Investors will look for any signals shedding light on the ECB's plans for supporting economic growth. Particular attention will be paid to comments regarding interest rate prospects.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: Today, euro purchases can be considered at the 1.1735 level (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1760. At 1.1760, I plan to exit the market and open a short position on a reversal, aiming for a 30–35-pip move from the entry point. A euro rise can only be expected following a firm stance from ECB representatives. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move upward from it.

• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1721 level, if the MACD is in the oversold zone at that time. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward 1.1735 and 1.1760 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches the 1.1721 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1695, where I intend to exit the market and immediately open a long position on a reversal (expecting a 20–25-pip correction in the opposite direction). Selling pressure on the pair will return if weak data emerges. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1735 level and the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal downward, with targets at 1.1721 and 1.1695.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.

Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.

Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.