On Friday, the EUR/USD pair rose to the 61.8% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1594, rebounded from it, and turned in favor of the U.S. dollar. Thus, the decline may continue today toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level — 1.1517. If the price consolidates above 1.1594, we can expect further growth toward the resistance level of 1.1645–1.1656.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last upward wave has not yet broken the previous high, while the last downward wave broke the previous low — meaning the trend still remains bearish. Bullish traders are not taking advantage of the opportunities to advance, while bears are often attacking purely on enthusiasm, without any news support. To confirm the end of the current "bearish" trend, the pair needs either to rise above 1.1656 or to form two consecutive bullish waves.

On Friday, traders could only pay attention to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, but it's no longer relevant. This morning, it became known that U.S. senators reached an agreement during the vote on a government funding bill. Thus, the U.S. government shutdown may end in the coming days — as already announced by Donald Trump. This shutdown has become the longest in U.S. history, lasting 40 days.

At this point, it is unclear who made the concession — Democrats or Republicans — but reports indicate that government funding has only been approved until January 30, and a vote on healthcare funding will take place in December, which Democrats insisted must remain at its previous levels. It seems, therefore, that Republicans were the ones to concede, as they had previously demanded the original budget version with no compromises in healthcare or social spending. In any case, the agreement is temporary, lasting only until the end of January — which means that by February, another shutdown may occur.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair turned in favor of the euro after forming a bullish divergence on the CCI indicator and consolidating above the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1538. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the resistance level of 1.1649–1.1680. A close below 1.1538 would favor the U.S. dollar and signal a resumption of the decline toward the 50.0% corrective level at 1.1448. Currently, no developing divergences are observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 789 long positions and opened 2,625 short positions. However, no new COT reports have been released for over a month.

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish, largely thanks to Donald Trump, and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 252,000, compared to 138,000 short positions — a twofold difference.

Note also the large number of green cells in the table above, indicating a strong build-up of long positions on the euro. In most cases, interest in the euro continues to grow, while interest in the dollar is declining.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, major players have been reducing short positions and increasing long positions. Trump's economic policies remain the dominant factor for traders, as they could create long-term, structural problems for the U.S. economy. Despite several new trade deals being signed, many key economic indicators continue to show weakness.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

November 10 — The economic calendar contains no notable events. Therefore, the news background will have no impact on market sentiment on Monday.

Forecast for EUR/USD and Trader Recommendations:

At this time, I do not recommend selling, as I believe the bears have already achieved more than enough. Buying positions could have been considered after a close above 1.1517, with a target of 1.1594, which has already been reached. New long positions may be considered after a rebound from 1.1517 or a close above 1.1594.

Fibonacci grids are drawn between 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.