empty
 
 
17.04.2026 12:42 AM
AUD/USD. Two Advantages for the Aussie: Labor Market and China

The "Australian Non-Farms" were favorable for the Aussie. The Australian labor market data released on Thursday bolstered traders' hawkish expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia's future actions. As a result of this fundamental factor, buyers of the AUD/USD pair set a multi-year price high, testing the 72-level for the first time since June 2022. Additional support for the Aussie came from data on China's economic growth.

This image is no longer relevant

Let's start with the Australian indicators. According to data released on Thursday, unemployment in Australia remained unchanged at 4.3% in March, as most analysts had anticipated, making it a non-surprise outcome. However, the growth in the number of employed slightly fell short of forecasts, rising by 17,900 rather than the expected 20,000. This small "miss" is offset by the fact that the overall increase was driven solely by full-time employment, while part-time employment showed negative dynamics (the ratio was +52,500/-34,600).

This is an important point, since in the previous month we observed the opposite scenario: despite a decrease in full-time employment (-27,700), part-time positions increased by 77,300. The participation rate stood at 66.8% (after an unexpected rise to 66.9% in February). Despite a slight decline, this indicator is near historical highs, indicating that the Australian economy is successfully absorbing the influx of new job seekers.

The report also showed that the total hours worked in the economy increased by 9.5 million (0.5%) in March. This is an important leading indicator suggesting that, even with moderate hiring, companies' actual economic activity is growing. In the previous month, this figure exhibited negative dynamics, so the March result can be seen as offsetting February's weakness.

Overall, the report has bolstered hawkish expectations among traders regarding the RBA's future actions. The unemployment rate remains at 4.3%, while a gradual drift toward 4.5% and higher is necessary to cool inflation. The current level suggests that the Australian economy is continuing to "digest" high interest rates without a significant rise in unemployment. At the same time, the sharp tilt towards full-time employment indicates that labor demand remains structural rather than temporary or seasonal. As is well known, full-time positions offer higher wages and better job security than part-time jobs. This factor affects wage growth dynamics and, indirectly, influences inflation growth. Therefore, the "Australian Non-Farms" signal robust trends.

However, despite a strong labor market, the RBA's next interest rate actions will depend on the CPI growth report for the first quarter, which will be released at the end of April. This is the "last missing piece" of the puzzle for the RBA ahead of the decisive May meeting.

Nevertheless, Thursday's release "in advance" strengthened the Aussie's position.

Additional support for the AUD/USD pair came from data on China's GDP growth published on Thursday. It became known that the Chinese economy grew by 5.0% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year. While most analysts predicted a more modest growth of 4.8%. It is also worth noting that over the previous three quarters, the indicator showed a downward trend, reaching 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025. But this year, the Chinese economy has accelerated, demonstrating its ability to adapt to external shocks (including, by the way, the impact of the Middle East conflict).

Looking at quarterly dynamics, growth was 1.3% compared to the previous quarter. China's current GDP growth rate is at the upper limit of the Chinese government's annual plan (4.5-5.0%).

Given the report's structure, it should be noted that the industry has become the main engine of growth. This sector (industrial production) increased by 6.1% during the quarter. Moreover, the main contribution came from the high-tech sector: for example, the production of semiconductors and energy (in particular, lithium batteries and equipment for renewable energy). As you know, China is Australia's largest trading partner, accounting for about a third of its exports (iron ore, coal, and gas). Strong data on China's GDP indicate that guaranteed demand for Australian raw materials will continue, along with a stable inflow of export earnings.

Thus, the current fundamental backdrop supports further growth of AUD/USD. The same is reflected in the technical analysis: on all higher timeframes, the pair is located between the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands, as well as above all lines of the Ichimoku indicator, which has formed a bullish "Parade of Lines" signal on the H4 and W1 timeframes. Corrective pullbacks should be utilized as opportunities to open long positions with the first (and currently only) target at 0.7200, which corresponds to the upper Bollinger Bands line on the daily chart.

Recommended Stories

¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.