As I have mentioned in my previous reviews, time is working against Donald Trump, and Iran knows its current position well and is using it to the fullest. Let's ponder whether Iran even has any incentive to reach an agreement with Donald Trump. Trump started a war, aggressively bombed Iran for a month and a half, killed its supreme leader and most of his family, and destroyed or damaged Iranian infrastructure. Now, Trump suddenly desires peace and demands that Tehran sign a deal on Washington's terms. Why would Iran need such a deal at all?

Therefore, I continue to believe that any ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran will be temporary. There will be no stable and long-term peace until Trump orders his troops to return to their bases. Iran will not concede, compromise, or abandon its nuclear weapons or full control over the Strait of Hormuz. This is already obvious to everyone. If Iran were genuinely seeking peace by any means, it would have long accepted Washington's conditions. Instead, Iran is prepared to fight for years and decades, as it has lived in a state of military tension for the past 50 years. During all this time, it could have renounced nuclear development and enriched uranium a million times but has not done so. What is the probability that it will do so now?

As I mentioned, Iran has several serious trump cards in hand. The first trump card is time. There are only a few months left until the U.S. Congressional elections, and the new escalation in the Middle East has already pushed oil prices up by $17-$18. Consequently, inflation will remain high, and American voters will strive to deprive Trump of unilateral power in a country where his actions significantly impact their wallets. If the Democrats win the elections, Trump will no longer be able to bomb Iran whenever he wants. Therefore, Democrats are currently Iran's most important allies.

The second trump card is the Strait of Hormuz. By imposing a blockade of the strait, Iran is blackmailing the entire world, demanding that they rein in Trump. So far, the international community has not reacted, preferring to simply pay more for oil and gas. Well, that's fine; let them pay more. The Strait of Hormuz will be used to maintain high energy prices, so that U.S. voters think three times before deciding whom to vote for in the Congressional elections.

Wave Analysis of EUR/USD:

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within a bullish section of the trend, while in a more short-term view, it is within a bearish section of the trend. In my opinion, now is a good time to try forming long positions, although the instrument may drop to the 13 figure within wave 5 in C. Wave analysis often surprises, so I would already start adjusting for longs.

Wave Analysis of GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has become quite complex. Currently, the instrument has built three waves down, while EUR/USD may have constructed five waves. Thus, the British pound may build another wave down, just like the euro, but this wave may be the second within a new bullish section of the trend. Therefore, there will be divergence in the wave structures of the euro and the pound, but it will be insignificant and minor. Based on this, I expect a pullback soon, followed by the formation of a new bullish section of the trend, with initial targets around the 37-38 level.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are hard to trade and often indicate changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter.
3. There is never and can never be 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.