Trade Analysis for Friday:

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair continued to correct on Friday after a sharp rise on Wednesday, as well as against a three-week upward trend. It can be said that the recent decline of the British currency is purely technical, similar to the preceding growth that began from the lower area of the sideways channel on the weekly timeframe. The British pound showed a quite logical rise in recent weeks, as the U.S. dollar has maximized its growth factors in 2026. Geopolitics cannot support the dollar forever, and the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and other central banks is currently shrouded in a fog of uncertainty due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Thus, in most cases, we observe movements that are rather difficult to explain. On Friday, the market ignored American data, while the UK event calendar was empty. The upward trend on the hourly timeframe remains, and the pound sterling at least is not stagnant, unlike the European currency.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

In the 5-minute timeframe, a sell trading signal formed on Friday, which is unlikely to have generated profit for traders, as the movement that day was very weak. The price bounced off the area of 1.3456-1.3476, but failed to show any meaningful movement throughout the day.

How to Trade on Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues its three-week upward trend. We believe that the recent rise in the pound reflects a recovery toward fair value and is a technical movement justified by the sideways channel on higher timeframes. The trend line on the hourly timeframe has been redrawn and again supports the pound. Consolidation below it would allow the pair to start a new trend. We believe that a new dollar trend can only be expected if a full-scale war resumes in the Middle East.

On Monday, novice traders may open short positions on a price bounce from the 1.3456-1.3476 area, targeting 1.3380-1.3386. A price consolidation above the area of 1.3456-1.3476 would allow for opening long positions with a target of 1.3587-1.3598. However, volatility may again be weak today.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently be done at the following levels: 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, 1.3695. No significant events or publications are scheduled for Monday in the UK and the U.S. Thus, we are likely to experience a classic "boring Monday."

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time required to form it (a bounce or a breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.