Many analysts believe that next summer, the leading cryptocurrency could reach a staggering $200,000. They estimate the likelihood of this scenario at 50%. This forecast may come true if the asset rides the wave of growth.

Throughout this week, the price of Bitcoin has risen by almost 6%. This has given hope to analysts and market participants for a further upward move in the first cryptocurrency. According to crypto analyst Timothy Peterson, by June 2026, the BTC price could reach a new all-time high of $200,000. The expert puts the odds of hitting such a peak at 50%.

By the end of this week, Bitcoin has remained stable: on Friday, September 26, it started sideways trading near $109,506. BTC's daily low was $108,713, and the high was $112,636.

Optimistic forecasts for Bitcoin's price

According to T. Peterson, for the crypto market to hit the $200,000 target, it would require an average monthly return of 7%, implying an annual gain of 120%. In addition, the analyst has suggested two potential bullish scenarios for BTC's trajectory. Some of these scenarios point to a new record high of $240,000, while a more conservative outlook suggests a rise to $160,000.

However, the current BTC dynamics are far from optimistic. At times, Bitcoin, the market heavyweight, has fallen below $111,000 and is now trading just above $108,000. According to experts, this is the weakest level seen in September. BTC's current market capitalization is $2.17 trillion, and daily turnover exceeds $75.54 billion.

Investors anticipate Friday's PCE reports

Despite optimism regarding long-term forecasts, the crypto market's short-term momentum has not been without issues. On Thursday, September 25, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL) all saw sharp declines as investors turned their attention to upcoming economic data.

Market participants are focused on the Friday release of the US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) reports, which serve as the Fed's preferred inflation metric. These indicators can affect future rate decisions. When interest rates fall, more stable assets like bonds or stocks offer lower yields, prompting investors to shift into riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Earlier this week, the crypto market experienced a significant sell-off, marking the year's largest reduction in leveraged positions. At the start of the week, many digital asset investors scaled back their bullish bets built after the Fed's recent 25 basis point rate cut.

The recent drop was a notable event in a volatile week. For many, the current BTC trend is seen as a tactical retreat, not a capitulation. Amid rising liquidity and pressure on market leaders, investor focus has shifted to the upcoming economic data. Positive reports are expected to help digital assets recover lost positions.

Nevertheless, the crypto market remains tense: over the last three weeks, its capitalization fell to a low of $3.83 trillion. "The crypto market is sinking further below its 50-day moving average," analysts noted. At the same time, altcoins—as well as some developed world currencies—have lost ground since the Fed's rate cut. Since Tuesday, September 23, the main US stock indexes—the Nasdaq100 and the S&P 500—have joined them.

A surprise revision to US GDP, registered on Thursday, September 25, rattled macro-sensitive assets and put the crypto sector back in the spotlight. Notably, in Q2 2025, the US economy grew by 3.8%, far exceeding expert estimates. This pushed Treasury yields to a three-week high and decreased the likelihood of further rate cuts.

Bitcoin suffered the most, breaking below $109,000 and hitting its lowest level in a month. Losses in Ethereum intensified, and crypto-related stocks such as MicroStrategy (MSTR) fell 4.5%. Recall that MicroStrategy is the largest corporate holder of BTC.

Against this backdrop, the implied volatility of Bitcoin dropped to its lowest since 2023. According to XWIN Research, current blockchain data indicate a "calm before the storm." Previously, such conditions preceded explosive growth. CoinW analysts agree: "Negative funding rates, seasonal patterns, and inflows into institutional ETFs all increase BTC's odds of growth." CoinGlass data shows that in October, the flagship asset has strengthened in 10 of the last 12 years.

The economic situation also remains in limbo. If US inflation turns out to be moderate, further Fed rate cuts are possible. In this scenario, market liquidity would rise, experts emphasize. This, according to QCP Capital analysts, would be the main driver for Bitcoin's growth momentum in October.