Investment firm Bernstein has updated its scenarios for the long-term growth of the flagship cryptocurrency amid the renewed market rally. According to an analytical note from expert Gautam Chhugani, Bitcoin could recover to $200,000 by mid-2027 under a bullish scenario with a substantial influx of institutional capital and reach a peak of $500,000 by the end of 2029. The firm's baseline forecast anticipates hitting $150,000 by mid-2027 and $300,000 by the end of 2029. Meanwhile, the strategic goal of $1,000,000 per coin by the end of 2033 remains unchanged for both scenarios.

The revision of estimates coincided with a strong price impulse at the end of August: Bitcoin prices exceeded $80,000 for the first time in 15 weeks (reaching a peak of $81,231) and have gained 25% over the last 10 days. The main catalyst for the growth was the actions of the US Treasury Department: Secretary Scott Bessent announced the doubling of the limit for regular buyback operations of long-term Treasury bonds (10-, 20-, and 30-year securities) from $2 billion to $4 billion per session. This intervention is intended to stabilize the sovereign debt market and bring benchmark yields back down. Meanwhile, Treasury yields have surged to 20-year highs due to stubborn inflation and the energy crisis amid the war with Iran.   

According to Bernstein, the steps taken by the US Treasury confirm the end of a 40-year era of low interest rates and the beginning of a protracted budget crisis. In the context of unprecedented growth in sovereign debt and rising servicing costs, governments in developed countries will inevitably prefer the devaluation of fiat currencies and large-scale liquidity injections over politically painful cuts to government spending. In this macroeconomic environment, deficit "hard" assets with mathematically restricted issuance will become the main beneficiaries of capital inflows.