Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1607 price level coincided with the MACD indicator having already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I didn't enter any sell trades and stayed out of the market.

The strongest spike in volatility occurred following reports that U.S. President Donald Trump had discussed the possibility of removing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell during a closed meeting with Republican lawmakers. Market participants interpreted this as a new stage of political instability and a sign of possible interference in the country's independent monetary policy. The dollar instantly plunged but quickly regained its ground after Powell denied the rumors. It's worth noting that removing the Fed Chair, especially for political reasons, could severely damage the United States' reputation as a reliable economic partner and negatively impact long-term growth prospects. As a result, all further developments will be closely monitored by market participants.

This morning, data on the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core inflation for June will be released. If inflation shows signs of acceleration, this may prompt the European Central Bank to pause interest rate cuts. Conversely, a strengthening inflationary trend, as reflected in the CPI, could prompt the ECB to adjust its current monetary policy stance. If the figures indicate slowing or stabilizing inflation, the ECB is likely to revert to the more dovish approach observed earlier this year, potentially disappointing market participants and weakening the euro.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: Buy the euro today at 1.1631 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.1670. I plan to exit at 1.1670 and open a counter-sell position from that point, aiming for a 30–35 point reversal from the entry level. Today's euro rise can only be expected within the scope of a correction.

Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to move upward from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the 1.1612 price is tested twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downside potential and may trigger a reversal upward. The expected targets are 1.1631 and 1.1670.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1612 (red line on the chart), with a target at 1.1582, where I will exit the market and enter a buy trade in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point retracement from the level. Selling pressure on the pair may return at any moment today.

Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to move downward from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if 1.1631 is tested twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to the market reversal downwards. We can expect a decline to the opposite level of 1.1612 and 1.1582.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.