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By the end of the previous trading day, the American stock indices closed in the red. The S&P 500 fell by 0.43%, while the Nasdaq 100 decreased by 0.22%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.47%.
The dollar recouped most of its earlier losses after Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook stated she had no intention to resign, despite President Donald Trump's attempt to fire her.
The dollar had previously dropped by 0.3%, and gold gained 0.6% after Trump decided to fire Cook following accusations of falsifying mortgage documents. The US dollar trimmed its losses, while gold prices decreased after Cook's announcement that she would not resign. Asian indices fell by 0.7%. Futures on US and European stock indices also faced a sell-off.
Treasury bonds declined, making the yield curve steeper, as Trump's decision raised questions regarding the central bank's independence. French bond futures dropped to their lowest since March during Asian trading amid the country's political crisis.
The market reacted nervously to a lack of political clarity, which was reflected in an investor flight from risk assets. Cook's statement was likely interpreted as a signal of maintaining the status quo, which undermined confidence in the outlook for economic policy. Investors seeking certainty and stability preferred to shift assets into more reliable currencies such as the US dollar, which, although previously showing signs of weakness, managed to recover part of its positions. The drop in Asian indices likely reflects broader concerns regarding global economic prospects and trade relations. Gold, traditionally considered a safe haven, declined, which somewhat contradicts the broader trend of risk aversion. It is possible that investors liquidated positions in gold to free up cash to cover losses in other asset classes, or perceived Cook's statement as a signal of possible future stability, believing that the need for defensive assets has decreased.
In any case, Trump's actions reinforce negative sentiment toward American assets after his tariff war and growing budget deficit revived the "Sell America" slogan earlier this year, and Wall Street questioned US exceptionalism. Traders are seeking alternatives to the greenback, the world's reserve currency, and to Treasury bonds, and any perception of undermining the Fed's independence may accelerate this shift.
Cook's dismissal raises concerns about Fed independence, given that there is no legal basis for this. If Trump prevails on this issue, it means he could potentially have four board members sharing his viewpoint. It is not yet known whether these board members would respect the Fed's independence and adhere to its dual mandate.
Regarding the technical outlook for the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to break through the nearest resistance level of $6,441. This would pave the way for growth, as well as create an opportunity to jump to the new level of $6,457. Equally important for bulls is maintaining control over $6,473, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the case of a downward movement amid declining risk appetite, buyers must regain control of the market around $6,428. A breakout would quickly push the trading instrument back to $6,414 and open the way to $6,403..