Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The tests of the levels I designated in the afternoon did not occur.

Comments from the Japanese Minister of Finance regarding the yen's exchange rate led to a decline in the USD/JPY pair during the first half of the day, after which traders preferred to adopt a wait-and-see position in anticipation of new directions, as the warnings did not lead to any actions. The prevailing situation highlighted the general trend of indecision in the currency market, where verbal interventions often lack real steps, leaving investors in a state of uncertainty. However, such a pause may be the calm before the storm. The market is waiting for the rhetoric of Japanese authorities to transition into practical actions.

The impact of Japanese factors on global currency markets cannot be underestimated. The yen is traditionally considered a safe-haven currency, and its fluctuations often reflect general investor sentiment regarding the global economy. A strengthening yen may indicate rising concerns about slowing economic growth or escalating geopolitical risks. The key question now is how far the Japanese authorities are willing to go in their efforts to stabilize the national currency's exchange rate. The market is waiting for answers, and these answers will determine the further dynamics of the USD/JPY pair and possibly the entire currency market.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 153.75 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 154.36 (thicker green line on the chart). At the 154.36 level, I intend to exit my positions and immediately sell in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from this level). It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting its upward movement from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 153.38 twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected toward the opposite levels of 153.75 and 154.36.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a breach of the 153.38 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 152.67 level, where I plan to exit my sales and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from this level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward movement from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 153.75 twice while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease can be expected toward the opposite levels of 153.38 and 152.67.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.