Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the price level at 1.1490 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros. The second test at 1.1490 occurred when the MACD was in the overbought area, allowing the execution of Sell Scenario #2 on the euro, resulting in a 20-pip decline in the pair.

The ADP data showed an increase of 42,000 in the number of employed, while economists expected a smaller increase. This surprise prompted many to revise their forecasts for the labor market, as the ADP is often viewed as a preliminary indicator of the broader employment picture. The strengthened dollar reflects this new wave of optimism about the U.S. economy, though market participants are cautious and slow to make major decisions.

This morning, several economic reports are expected to be published, covering changes in German industrial production, employment dynamics in France's private sector, and retail sales in the Eurozone. Special attention will be given to the report on Germany's industrial sector, as it reflects the state of the Eurozone's leading economy and sets the tone for the entire economic zone. A decline in industrial production may signal broader issues, including falling demand and supply chain disruptions. The employment report from France is also important, as it will assess the state of the national labor market. An increase in the number of jobs in the private sector would be a positive sign, indicating economic stability and a rise in consumer confidence, which could support the euro in the current challenging situation. The morning session will conclude with the publication of Eurozone retail sales data. An increase in retail sales indicates a healthy economy, while a decrease may point to economic difficulties.

For today, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today upon reaching an entry point around 1.1514 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1543. At 1.1543, I plan to exit the market and sell immediately on the bounce (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the entry point). Growth in the euro can only be expected within the framework of a correction. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting its upward movement from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.1503 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1514 and 1.1543.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1503 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1477, where I will exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25 pip move). Selling pressure on the pair could return at any moment today. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward movement from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.1514 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1503 and 1.1477.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.