Trade Review and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 144.61 occurred just as the MACD indicator began to move downward from the zero level, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. This led to a decline toward the target level of 143.93.

Toward the beginning of the U.S. session, pressure on the dollar eased, resulting in a slight correction in the pair. This may be due to the anticipated release of key U.S. GDP and labor market data later in the day. Additional focus will be on the speeches of FOMC members Thomas Barkin and Michael S. Barr. Unlike Powell, these policymakers may openly express their views on current developments, which could influence currency market direction and the U.S. dollar. Their assessments of economic conditions, inflation outlook, and future monetary policy paths will be critical aspects of their speeches. In particular, investors will closely monitor any hints of further rate cuts or adjustments to the Fed's balance sheet reduction pace.

Barkin, known for his conservative stance on inflation, may clarify how seriously the Fed views sustained inflationary pressure. Barr, the Fed's Vice Chair for Supervision, is expected to focus on financial system resilience and banking regulation.

For intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 144.67 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to 145.59 (thicker green line). At 145.59, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move downward. A strong rally in the pair can only be expected if the data is strong. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2:I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 144.11 twice in a row while the MACD is in oversold territory. This will likely limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 144.67 and 145.59 is expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to sell USD/JPY after the price breaks below 144.11 (red line on the chart), which may lead to a sharp drop. The key target for sellers will be 143.34, where I will exit short positions and consider opening long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure is expected to return in case of weak data.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2:I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 144.67 twice in a row while the MACD is in overbought territory. This will likely cap the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal. A decline toward 144.11 and 143.34 is expected.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – suggested Take Profit level or area to close long positions, as further growth is unlikely above this point
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit level or area to close short positions, as further decline is unlikely below this point
• MACD Indicator – use overbought and oversold zones to guide entry decisions

Important Note for Beginners

Beginner Forex traders must exercise extreme caution when entering the market. It's best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental releases to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news events, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you may quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you neglect money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one provided above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.