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28.07.2025 12:47 AM
Here we are, finally turning to the dollar and the United States. Let's begin with the most important events. First and foremost — the Federal Reserve meeting. Although no one expects the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates at this point, the market still allows for the possibility of two rounds of easing in the second half of the year. In this context, Jerome Powell's speech will be extremely important, as he may signal a readiness to resume the easing cycle in the fall. If Powell openly hints at such a scenario, demand for the U.S. dollar could begin to fall once again — as early as Wednesday evening. Demand for the dollar has been declining throughout 2025, even when the European Central Bank and the Bank of England were cutting their rates. If the Fed signals readiness to follow suit, it could be very costly for the dollar.
August 1st. On August 1st, Donald Trump is expected to raise tariffs on more than two dozen countries, and also impose duties on all imports of copper, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. Admittedly, the U.S. President may still change his mind at the last minute, but this time it appears that his words will match his actions. If this assumption proves correct, we could face a real storm as early as Friday — the same day that the U.S. will release its labor market and unemployment reports. The new tariffs will mean that the global trade war continues to escalate. Trump has already signed four trade deals, and by the end of next week their total may grow to six or seven. However, with the new tariffs, the White House is now aiming to tax virtually all countries and all sectors of industrial production. Against this backdrop, neither the dollar nor I can find any reason to cheer the signing of trade agreements, as they are overshadowed by the sweeping new duties.
Labor market and unemployment rate. These reports are significant in their own right. In addition to them, there will be other important data releases (e.g., ADP, ISM). However, I will focus on the key ones. The unemployment rate could rise to 4.2%, while the number of Nonfarm Payrolls may drop to 102,000. These are weak figures, even compared to the previous month. If confirmed, the market will have another reason to complete the formation of corrective waves on both instruments. In my opinion, the coming week poses a real risk for the U.S. currency.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend segment. The wave structure remains entirely dependent on the news background, especially on decisions made by Trump and U.S. foreign policy, where no positive changes are currently evident. The targets of the trend segment could reach as far as the 1.25 area. Therefore, I continue to consider long positions with targets near 1.1875 (corresponding to a 161.8% Fibonacci level) and higher. The failed attempt to break through 1.1572 (which corresponds to 100.0% Fibonacci) indicates the market's readiness for new buying activity. The assumed wave 4 may take a three-wave corrective form.
The wave structure for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend. Under Trump, the markets may still experience many shocks and reversals, which could significantly impact the wave structure. However, for now, the primary scenario remains intact. The targets of the upward trend segment are now located around the 1.4017 level, which corresponds to 261.8% Fibonacci from the assumed global wave 2. Currently, a corrective wave set is forming within wave 4. Classically, it should consist of three waves, but the market may well limit it to just one.
