A sharp increase in Bitcoin during today's Asian trading session may indicate the return of large players to the market—participants who have not been very active lately.

Clearly, September is not the best time for such a move. As historical data show, September is usually a bearish month not just for cryptocurrencies, but for all classes of risk assets. October, on the other hand, is known for the strongest bullish seasonality: BTC has posted positive returns and an average gain of 22.9% in 9 out of the last 10 Octobers. Naturally, this phenomenon does not guarantee a repeat, but it does highlight the cyclicality and seasonal trends that are typical of financial markets. Investors who pay close attention to such patterns can use them to form their trading strategies, considering the possibility of an October rally. However, relying solely on seasonality would be shortsighted.

It is necessary to also take into account the current macroeconomic environment, the news backdrop, and overall market sentiment. More accommodative regulatory changes, technological breakthroughs, and geopolitical events—all of these can alter the expected dynamics of the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, analysis of October's seasonality should always be complemented by other factors affecting the price of Bitcoin. Moreover, it is important to remember that past results do not guarantee future returns. Markets are constantly changing, and established patterns may lose relevance. Nevertheless, understanding historical trends allows investors to better anticipate possible scenarios and make more informed decisions.

BofA also forecasts that the fourth quarter of this year could be the strongest ever for BTC. This bold forecast, coming from one of the world's largest financial institutions, adds even more intrigue to the evolving landscape of the cryptocurrency market. BofA's arguments likely consider a range of factors, from seasonality to potential macroeconomic shifts. Notably, institutional interest in BTC—which has steadily grown in recent years—could reach its peak by the end of 2025. More and more companies are adding cryptocurrency to their balance sheets as a hedge against inflation and a means of diversifying assets. In addition, potential approval of new BTC ETFs would attract even more capital to the market, which will undoubtedly affect the price of the world's first cryptocurrency.

Rising awareness and adoption of BTC among retail investors is also playing a significant role. Increasing numbers of individuals view cryptocurrency as a promising tool for investment and savings, which stimulates demand and consequently supports price growth.

Trading recommendations:

As for the technical outlook on Bitcoin, buyers are now targeting a return to the $112,800 level, which would open the way toward $114,400, with just a short distance remaining to the $116,000 mark. The most distant target is the high near $117,400: a breakout above this would signal further strengthening of the bull market. Should Bitcoin decline, buyers are expected to become active around $111,200. A drop back below this area could quickly push BTC toward $109,900, with the most distant downside target in the area of $108,600.

Regarding Ethereum's technical setup, a firm move above $4,132 paves the way to $4,210. The most distant target is the high near $4,331, and a breakout above this would confirm the strength of the bull market and a rise in buying interest. In the event of a correction, buyers are expected near $4,039. If ETH falls back below this level, the price may quickly drop to $3,942, with the most distant downside target in the region of $3,827.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines: support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either stall or move sharply;

- Green lines: 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines: 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines: 200-day moving average.

The crossing or testing of moving averages by the price usually halts or triggers further movement in the market.